This is not substantive investment research or a research recommendation, as it does not constitute substantive research or analysis. This material should be considered as general market commentary.
The news has been awash with stories of a pending recession. Barely a week passes without another warning light flashing red or an economist making ominous comments on the state of the economy. This commentary though, hasn’t all been one way. There have been a number of conflicting data points and forecasts, not least of all from the Bank of England whose position has shifted from expecting a heavy recession to now forecasting no recession at all, all in just a six-month period. We are clearly in a volatile environment and the range of outcomes for markets is particularly wide. Rather than predict what this means for investment trusts, we have taken a look back at history to see how discounts behaved during periods of notable market movements, with a particular focus on the 2008 financial crisis and the recovery, and ask whether this can provide any insights for investors in the current uncertainty.
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