Greencoat UK Wind

UKW’s size and robust model means we think it deserves to trade at a premium to peers…

Add to watchlist Download View key data

Disclosure – Non-Independent Marketing Communication

This is a non-independent marketing communication commissioned by Greencoat UK Wind. The report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on the dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

Greencoat UK Wind
2021 Kepler Alternative Income Rated Fund

This trust has been awarded a rating by Kepler for alternative income... Find out more

Greencoat UK Wind (UKW) was the first renewable energy infrastructure trust to launch, and its subsequent growth has led to significant benefits for investors. The tiered fee structure and economies of scale have led to the OCF reducing significantly over time. At the same time, the trust can now consider much larger sized investments, which in themselves offer economies of scale and therefore potentially higher returns than might otherwise be the case. Finally, its scale enables a dedicated management team to optimise the assets and enhance performance.

This shows up in the NAV performance of UKW, which continues to perform strongly relative to peers and the UK equity market. UKW remains the only renewable energy infrastructure fund to explicitly state that its aim is to grow dividends in line with inflation.

The UK Government’s ten-point plan for a Green Industrial Revolution to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 requires a significant ramp up of offshore wind generation to 40GW, which would represent a quadrupling of current capacity. Offshore wind farms are typically significantly larger than onshore, and UKW’s increased scale will allow it to invest in this asset class. Notwithstanding a competitive market, UKW has a significant pipeline of assets that it has committed to buy which should give reassurance on the immediate future in terms of capital deployment.

UKW’s target dividend for the current year is 7.18p, meaning the shares offer a prospective dividend yield of 5.4% on the current share price, which we think compares well with income sources elsewhere.

Analyst's View

In our view 2020 shows the strength and resilience of UKW’s relatively simple model. A combination of the high and rising dividend, and the NAV growth has led to strong total returns since IPO and over the past five years. Indeed, UKW remains amongst the best performing of the renewable energy infrastructure funds since it launched in 2013.

At the same time, the NAV has been strong and uncorrelated with volatility in the equity market. The share price has had a beta and volatility of less than half of the FTSE All Share over five years (Source: Morningstar), and so we believe that over the long term UKW’s trading history illustrates that it is an attractive complement to equity portfolios.

Of late, dividend cover has been lower than the managers’ budgeted expectation of 1.6-1.7x. For the current year, it is early days yet. However, we understand that the team are optimistic that despite wind speeds being lower than usual in Q1 2021, higher wholesale energy prices mean that dividend cover should be in line with budget.

Notwithstanding a competitive market, UKW has a significant pipeline of assets that it has committed to buy which gives reassurance on the immediate future in terms of capital deployment. The current premium to NAV of 11% (Source: JPMorgan Cazenove) is in-line with the five-year average for the trust. In our view UKW justifies a premium rating to the peer group average, and so the current level could provide an attractive entry point for a trust offering a covered dividend linked to inflation, and an OCF projected to be below 1%.

BULL
BEAR
High dividend yield, well covered by cash
Premium to NAV (although currently below peer group average)
Continued commitment to RPI-linked dividend growth
Gearing exacerbates underlying asset valuation movements
Uncorrelated assets, and committed pipeline of investments
Valuations based on long-term assumptions which may (or may not) prove optimistic
William Heathcoat Amory
William Heathcoat Amory is a co-founding partner of Kepler Partners LLP and leads the Kepler investment trust research team. William has 18 years of experience as an investment company analyst. Prior to co-founding Kepler Partners in 2008, he was part of the Extel number 1 rated research team at JPMorgan Cazenove.

Fund History

Disclaimer

This report has been issued by Kepler Partners LLP.  The analyst who has prepared this report is aware that Kepler Partners LLP has a relationship with the company covered in this report and/or a conflict of interest which may impair the objectivity of the research.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. The value of investments can fall as well as rise and you may get back less than you invested when you decide to sell your investments. It is strongly recommended that if you are a private investor independent financial advice should be taken before making any investment or financial decision.

Kepler Partners is not authorised to make recommendations to retail clients. This report has been issued by Kepler Partners LLP, is based on factual information only, is solely for information purposes only and any views contained in it must not be construed as investment or tax advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or take any action in relation to any investment.

The information provided on this website is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject Kepler Partners LLP to any registration requirement within such jurisdiction or country. In particular, this website is exclusively for non-US Persons. Persons who access this information are required to inform themselves and to comply with any such restrictions.

The information contained in this website is not intended to constitute, and should not be construed as, investment advice. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is given by any person as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and no responsibility or liability is accepted for the accuracy or sufficiency of any of the information, for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise. Any views and opinions, whilst given in good faith, are subject to change without notice.

This is not an official confirmation of terms and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell or take any action in relation to any investment mentioned herein. Any prices or quotations contained herein are indicative only.  

Kepler Partners LLP (including its partners, employees and representatives) or a connected person may have positions in or options on the securities detailed in this report, and may buy, sell or offer to purchase or sell such securities from time to time, but will at all times be subject to restrictions imposed by the firm’s internal rules. A copy of the firm’s Conflict of Interest policy is available on request.

PLEASE SEE ALSO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS

Kepler Partners LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN 480590), registered in England and Wales at 9/10 Savile Row, London W1S 3PF with registered number OC334771.

Welcome to Kepler Trust Intelligence

Kepler Trust Intelligence is authorised in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority.
Please enter a valid email address
{{item.msg}}
Please enter a valid password
{{item.msg}}
Please enter a valid email address
{{item.msg}}
Please check your email. If an account exists you'll be sent instructions on how to reset your password.
Kepler Trust Intelligence is authorised in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority. To ensure that we are able to provide content which is appropriate for you, please tell us a little about yourself.
Please choose an option
{{item.msg}}
Please enter a company name
{{item.msg}}
Please enter a location name
{{item.msg}}
Please choose an option
{{item.msg}}
Please enter a platform
{{item.msg}}
Please choose an option
{{item.msg}}
Please enter a trust
{{item.msg}}
?
The information contained herein is not for distribution and does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of any offer to buy any securities in the United States to or for the benefit of any United States person (being residents of the United States or partnerships or corporations organised under the laws thereof). The investment funds referred to herein have not been registered in the United States under the Investment Company Act of 1940 and units or shares of such funds are not registered in the United States under the Securities Act of 1933.
Please confirm
{{item.msg}}
Please select an option
{{item.msg}}
See benefits
A free Kepler Trust Intelligence account allows you to access premium content including the ‘Kepler View’ – our verdict on the trusts we cover – and historical research so you can see how our view has changed over time. An account also unlocks useful facilities like the ‘follow’ button which lets you keep track of the trusts you’re interested in and as a logged in user you can also download PDFs of our research, and choose the layout of the page you’re reading to suit your preference. We will not share your details unless you give us permission to do so, and we won’t bombard you with emails – we only send one a week.
Please select an option
{{item.msg}}
Please enter your first name
{{item.msg}}
Please enter your last name
{{item.msg}}
Please enter a valid email address
An account already exists with this email - have you forgotten your password?
{{item.msg}}
Please enter a valid password
{{item.msg}}
Please enter a valid password
{{item.msg}}
How will this information be used? Your answers help us to tailor our content to relevant investment trusts, and to ensure that the asset allocation and portfolio strategy research we produce is appropriate to our userbase.
Our Website uses Cookies Cookies are small text files held on your computer. They allow us to give you the best browsing experience possible and mean we can understand how you use our site. Some cookies have already been set. You can delete and block cookies, but parts of our site won’t work without them. By using our website you accept our use of cookies. For further information please refer to the Kepler Privacy Notice.
Need help?

One more thing...

Did you know, you can 'follow' individual trusts on Kepler Trust Intelligence? Use the functions below to set up alerts and we'll send you research and updates on your chosen trusts.

Suggested trusts to follow

Browse all funds
Need help?
Current Site Kepler Trust Intelligence is produced by the investment companies team at Kepler Partners and is the UK’s premier source of detailed qualitative research on investment trusts. Absolute Hedge is a market leading UCITS research database providing proprietary research on funds, themes and strategies in the UCITS space. Kepler Liquid Strategies is a Dublin domiciled UCITS fund platform featuring a number of best-of-breed fund managers. Kepler Partners is a corporate advisory and asset raising boutique specialising in the regulated funds market in Europe and investment trusts in the UK.