Downing Strategic Micro-Cap 09 February 2022
Disclaimer
Disclosure – Non-Independent Marketing Communication
This is a non-independent marketing communication commissioned by Downing Strategic Micro-Cap. The report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on the dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
Downing Strategic Micro-Cap (DSM) is a highly differentiated investment trust. The managers aim to benefit from valuation inefficiencies at the smallest end of the UK’s stock market and use the investment trust structure to access these opportunities without worrying too much about the illiquidity of the underlying investments.
DSM has a highly concentrated, high-conviction portfolio assembled by a truly active manager. Aside from the levels of research and due diligence that the team perform when selecting investments, their active approach can also involve them proactively engaging with the senior management or board in order to effect a catalyst to boost the valuation. DSM is by definition a ‘value’ investment strategy based on fundamental analysis, with a longer investment timeframe than most.
Performance since IPO has perhaps not been everything that the board and manager would have hoped. However, it is perhaps not surprising to have seen DSM underperform the more growthy AIC UK Smaller Companies peer group. Having a very different portfolio to the peer group means that DSM might be expected to deliver very different returns. This has been particularly evident this calendar year (2022), which has seen it outperform more growth focussed trusts by a considerable margin.
DSM’s discount widened dramatically during 2020. More recently, DSM’s board have been buying back shares regularly at wide discount levels. The latest share buyback was on 27/01/2022, which we estimate was at a discount of c. 19.1%. Combined with the manager’s estimated underlying discount that the portfolio trades at, DSM remains a truly ‘deep value’ opportunity.
The size of company that DSM invests in is significantly smaller than many institutional investors will contemplate. As such, DSM offers an idiosyncratic exposure to companies that are unlikely to be found in other funds or portfolios. It is perhaps unsurprising that during January, when the AIC UK Smaller Companies sector has stumbled thanks to inflation fears and rising interest rate expectations, DSM has performed well in absolute terms and on a relative basis, up by 3.3%% (Source: JPMorgan).
In our view, the stark outperformance of the peer group so far this year (2022) highlights how DSM does offer a differentiated return profile, which at certain times may add to diversification. The managers appear confident of the underlying recovery potential when the UK economy is finally able to shrug off COVID-19. A combination of a recovery in DSM’s companies earnings, and higher multiples if the market starts to rate them more highly, could be a powerful cocktail for shareholder returns.
At the same time, DSM trades on a wide discount to NAV, and the board are buying shares back. At current discount levels, DSM seems well-positioned for investors looking for a very differentiated and idiosyncratic exposure to the UK Small Cap space. DSM might be considered a classic value play, and so if current momentum continues, this discount might be expected to narrow. Nonetheless, we caution the discount has at points been wider during the recent past.
bull | bear |
Portfolio companies look to be in a strong position to capitalise on the UK economic recovery |
Poor performance since IPO, illiquid nature of underlying companies and small size of the trust all mean that a narrowing of the discount is far from guaranteed over the short term |
Highly differentiated strategy, with cash of 15% on the balance sheet giving the managers flexibility |
Highly concentrated portfolio means that any pitfalls experienced by any investments could meaningfully impact NAV |
Managers believe that portfolio companies trade well below their inherent values |
Illiquidity of underlying investments means managers may have limited room to adjust portfolio |