Strategy

The next big thing: two mega-trends that everyone should own

Tech has beaten almost everything hands down – but nothing lasts forever. Where else should investors be looking for secular growth themes?
William Heathcoat Amory
Last update 09 July 2020

Disclosure – Non-substantive Research

This is not substantive investment research or a research recommendation, as it does not constitute substantive research or analysis. With this commentary, Kepler Partners LLP does not intend to influence your investment firm's behaviour. 

2020 has so far proven to be the latest episode in a long period of technology outperformance, as we observed in this article. Over the past decade, technology-related companies have tended to perform like consumer staples or defensives on the downside, and like high-growth discretionary stocks on the upside: an ideal combination from the investor’s point of view. As a result the indices (and fund managers’ portfolios) are increasingly correlated to ‘big tech’.

How do investors who want a diversified portfolio deal with this, and how can they introduce more diversification into their portfolios, without reducing the potential for growth? The first step, of course, is to use specialist funds to diversify one’s holdings of individual technology stocks. Allianz Technology Trust (ATT) and Polar Capital Technology Trust (PCT), for instance, are both run by tech specialist managers. But ATT differs from PCT in that the portfolio is significantly more concentrated and, at times, has greater exposure to mid-caps. This combination of features means that ATT can be more volatile and deviate from the benchmark to a greater extent, from time to time. Nonetheless over the last five years, these two aspects of ATT have paid off for its shareholders – having outperformed PCT by a total of 15% in NAV terms.

While both trusts have delivered strong returns relative to their Dow Jones World Technology benchmark, both of their fortunes are also inextricably linked to big tech. If the biggest technology companies catch a cold, then the wider technology sector will likely catch it in the short term. At the same time, as we conclude in this article, there are good reasons why the quality characteristics which technology stocks display give them the potential to outperform for years to come. But nothing lasts forever and, while we wouldn’t bet against technology performing strongly in absolute terms over the medium term, it might be that sector leadership could pass elsewhere...

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