Disclosure – Non-substantive Research
This is not substantive investment research or a research recommendation, as it does not constitute substantive research or analysis. With this commentary, Kepler Partners LLP does not intend to influence your investment firm's behaviour.
Pithy phrases are popular in the investment world. Like traditional health remedies, it doesn’t matter much if the rationale seems shaky, they provide opportunities to appear profound. For example, it is hard to see how “the most dangerous words in investing are ‘this time is different’”, can be made to reconcile with regulatory warnings that past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. In our view, the second phrase is more valuable to keep in mind, or to put it in a pithy phrase or two: “stuff happens”, and “life comes at you fast”. Maybe our readers follow rugby more closely than we do, but for the casual fans we are, the number of rule changes there have been over the years makes the game almost unrecognisable (when did they get rid of rucking?!). The lesson perhaps is not to assume the knowledge you have built up in the past is still relevant to the future. Nowhere is this more relevant than in the emerging markets, where the rate of change is remarkable and the game is completely different these days.
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